Easing of state and local Covid restrictions is helping the economy make steady improvement. Most new jobs came from leisure and hospitality which added , jobs , education, and healthcare. The construction sector, however, shed 20, jobs — the second consecutive monthly decline. Employment in building construction grew by 4, positions due to gains in single family housing, but specialty trade jobs fell by 19, and heavy and civil engineering jobs dropped by 5, The recovery in the construction sector will be jagged through the remainder of , but confidence is growing that will bring a healthy pickup in construction activity.
While last year was unique for so many reasons, one way it was not unique is that the number of babies born in the U. Just The negative economic impact of the pandemic has caused many Americans to be concerned about their jobs and income, student loan debt, and many other aspects of their finances, leading them to postpone or forego decisions to have children.
Furthermore, the number of births and birth rate are unlikely to pull a sudden reversal in as the economy begins to re-open. Since gestation is nine months, decisions about having children made in will continue to impact births through most of Even as the economy begins to improve, births and birth rates are unlikely to show major changes.
A declining birth rate, in fact, has become a long-standing fact for the United States. In the s, for example, the typical woman had an average of four children. Today, that figure is less than two 1. Why is this significant to the construction industry? Population growth is the underlying driver of nearly all construction — with the possible exception of renovation that simply improves existing facilities and does not add new space.
An argument could be made that a declining population even lowers demand for renovation, however, as a smaller population requires less space. Therefore, a decline in the U. The wild card, of course, lies with immigration. The U. How much of that slack will be tightened remains to be seen, however, since the U. Significantly more people began to be vaccinated in the first quarter encouraging state and local governments to begin to ease restrictions on activities, and life slowly began to return to a new normal.
In addition, COVID stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment compensation were distributed in the first quarter and, combined with growing employment and a robust stock market, gave consumers the confidence to spend.
Consumer spending, in fact, grew at an annualized Fixed business investment in equipment up at an annualized By contrast, investment in housing saw only one quarter of decline a sharp Growth slowed to a still hot If enacted, an estimated billion dollars of funding would be distributed for various infrastructure projects including roads, bridges, transit, water and sewer, water resources, as well as education and healthcare buildings.
Follow this link to review our early analysis of how even a limited infrastructure program could have a positive impact on construction starts. It is a program that, if enacted in whole, would have a profound impact on the economy, and the construction sector in particular.
The plan is expansive and its direct construction-related portion accounts for roughly half of the total. To pay for the elements of the American Jobs Act, the plan calls for raising corporate taxes — a large hurdle that could raise the ire of Republicans and moderate Democrats.
Pushing through the legislation with Democrats alone brings its own complications either using the budget reconciliation process that requires the bill is fully paid for, or eliminating the filibuster , and would still require unanimity among Senate Democrats.
At the same time, a great deal of bipartisan and bicameral support does exist for added spending on infrastructure projects. Even this lower dollar figure would have an immediate and positive impact on the forecast for construction starts. This growth is equally shared across the public works sectors.
Nonresidential buildings would also see some support through additional funds for education, healthcare, and federal buildings, but the impact is more muted. We will be hosting a webinar on Tuesday April 27 th at 2pm EST to discuss in more detail the impact of a infrastructure package on the construction starts forecast. Registration information will be forthcoming.
Leisure and hospitality, for example, added , jobs in February with most of those jobs , coming from restaurants and bars. Retail jobs climbed by a smaller 41, and healthcare service employment, in high demand with the pandemic, increased by almost 46, Temporary jobs, which are typically a leading indicator for overall job growth, also rose by 57, over the month. Construction employment, by contrast, fell by 61, in February.
Private sector jobs increased by , in February, but government jobs continued to feel the squeeze from the loss of tax revenue and high cost of responding to the pandemic. Government jobs declined by 86, in February with most of those losses coming from state 39, and local 44, governments. Looking ahead, Dodge believes that employment will continue to grow, particularly as the economy picks up steam in the second half of the year.
The president is promising plentiful COVID vaccines for Americans by the end of May, which should usher in the beginnings of a true recovery. Hope for a better recovery, however, lies with the potential for an influx of federal stimulus funds directed to infrastructure. Below is a brief look at its potential impact by project type.
In constant dollar terms i. There is broad consensus across party lines for action beyond a renewal of the five-year surface transportation plan FAST Act , which is set to expire on September 30, Hire Dodge experts to get answers to your questions. Get free research and analysis delivered to your inbox. Fill out the form below to get the information on Dodge Construction Central.
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